BMW Group revised its 2026 guidance downward, cutting automotive margin from 4-6% to 1-3% and return on capital (ROCE) from 6-10% to 1-5%. Pretax profit guidance shifted from “moderate decrease” to “significant decrease versus previous year,” and delivery outlook moved from “at previous year’s level” to “slight decrease versus previous year.” Shares fell 7%, hitting their lowest point since late 2020.
Two pressures drove the revision. In China, BMW Group’s locally assembled sales dropped 14.9% year-on-year in January-May to 187,899 units (CAAM data). Domestic brands are closing in: Xiaomi sold 150,317 units (+13.5%) across two models, Leapmotor reached 187,817 units (+26.8%) - nearly matching BMW’s volume. The Middle East conflict raised energy prices, dampened consumer confidence, and added logistics costs.
For reference, BMW Group closed 2025 with pretax profit of €10.2 billion and net profit of €7.451 billion (-3% year-on-year). Group deliveries totalled 2.46 million vehicles.
Details on BMW Group’s response plan are expected with the Q2 half-year report on July 30.
