USATesla told JPMorgan analysts during a visit to its Fremont factory that the HW4 computer already installed in the cars it sells is enough to run Full Self-Driving without a driver supervising it. The bank published the note on 20 August 2026. Everything below is Tesla’s account as relayed by JPMorgan, not a Tesla announcement, and none of it carries a regulatory approval or a date for unsupervised operation on customer cars.
The hardware claim
Tesla refers to HW4 internally as AI4, and it is the computer it has been fitting to new cars since 2023. If the claim holds, those cars would not need a replacement computer to run the software Tesla is describing, which is the difference between a free over-the-air update and a service appointment for several million vehicles.
A faster version is already coming. Tesla is rolling out AI4.5 with roughly 10% more compute and about double the memory of AI4. The company presented it as headroom rather than as a fix for a shortfall.
What v15 is meant to add
Tesla described the coming FSD v15 as a step change over the current system and said it is built on seven core technologies, its own framing rather than the bank’s. About 40% of those are already running in the robotaxi fleet in Austin, where Tesla called early feedback encouraging. The remaining 60% has not been broken out publicly.
Cybercab and Optimus
Cybercab production is meant to accelerate from late 2026 into early 2027 using Tesla’s “unboxed” assembly process, with a long-run target of around $0.30 per mile. The Optimus robot’s third-generation design is finished and its supply chain, in Tesla’s words, essentially locked in. Its production line is being installed at Fremont in the space that built the Model S and Model X, and sales to customers outside Tesla are now framed as starting as early as the second half of 2027, later than the company had previously suggested.
JPMorgan’s new Tesla analyst raised the stock to Neutral after the visit, ending one of Wall Street’s longest-running bearish calls on the company.
The Tesla Model 3 is a battery-electric sedan, updated in 2024 with the "Highland" refresh. The China lineup runs from a rear-drive version to an 830 km Long Range RWD and a Performance model, from ¥235,500. Canada is supplied from the same Shanghai plant, where the Premium RWD starts at C$39,490.
The Tesla Model Y is a battery-electric mid-size SUV, refreshed in 2025 with the "Juniper" update. The China lineup runs from a 593 km rear-drive version to an 821 km Long Range RWD and a six-seat Model Y L. Prices start from ¥263,500.
